Drones Are Now the Deadliest Weapon in Modern Conflict
The Pentagon’s 16-year procurement cycle won’t cut it in a world where drone swarms and AI are updated nightly.
Image: DALL-E
Imagine this: A quiet afternoon in a bustling city, the usual cacophony of cars and chatter suddenly punctuated by silence. Citizens glance upward to see small, nearly silent drones forming precise formations overhead. Without warning, an unseen digital command ripples through the swarm, and each drone moves swiftly and silently to neutralize threats identified moments ago through AI-driven passive surveillance systems. This eerily calm operation completes within minutes—no gunfire, no explosions, just a surgical precision previously unimaginable. Welcome to the new battlefield.
This vision isn’t science fiction—it’s rapidly becoming the reality of modern warfare, vividly illustrated during a sobering panel at this year’s Milken Global Conference titled “The Future of Warfare.” Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt opened the panel with a stark account of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, describing it as “the most frightening thing you’ve ever seen. The death and destruction, the number of people killed on both sides, will just destroy your heart.” Schmidt, now deeply involved in advising the Pentagon on AI and technology strategy, framed Ukraine as ground zero for transforming how wars are fought.
The conflict in Ukraine has rapidly evolved into a drone-centric war. Schmidt highlighted Ukraine’s ambitious objective: “Their goal for the year is to build 10 million drones, the vast majority of which are not very sophisticated, but highly effective.” This monumental shift to drone technology has compensated dramatically for Ukraine’s initial lack of traditional military assets, particularly in air and naval forces.
But the drone arms race is not one-sided. Schmidt detailed how Russia, initially caught unprepared, has now aggressively scaled its capabilities. “I underestimated the Russian ability to get their act together,” Schmidt admitted. “They have taken the design called the Shaheed 136 out of Iran, and they’ve now built it. It’s a very big, dumb drone, but dumb drones kill you, too.” Schmidt’s observations highlight a broader shift—where simplicity and quantity often outperform complexity and sophistication.
Statistics underscore this transformation’s scale. The United Nations recently reported drones accounted for 27% of civilian deaths and 30% of injuries in Ukraine as of early 2025, surpassing any other weapon system. Moreover, drones now cause roughly 80% of battlefield casualties in Ukraine, according to defense analytics from National Security News. Globally, drone use is widespread—over three dozen nations, including China, Turkey, and Iran, now operate armed drone fleets.
Jeffrey Cole, CEO of Hidden Level, a defense startup specializing in passive radar technology, reinforced this urgency during the Milken panel. Cole described his company’s passive sensing tech as “giving a full 3D picture on everything from small drones to dark drones (which don’t emit any radio frequency) to fighter jets, stratospheric balloons, and fast-moving projectiles.” Hidden Level’s technology offers a distinct advantage in stealth detection, essential given drones’ silent threat.
Indeed, it isn’t just in Ukraine. Earlier this year, a flurry of drone sightings set off a panic across much of the Northeast United States. Asked if it was some enemy plot as many online were suggesting Cole simply said, “There is a lot of interesting stuff up there.”
Cole remembers one incident vividly: “I got a phone call on a Saturday during the Army-Navy game. They said, ‘How quickly can you deploy?’ 24 hours later, we were operational over the entire New England airspace.” Within minutes, Cole’s system had identified and helped apprehend a drone operator threatening aircraft at Stewart Air Force Base. “Under seven minutes, they were at his house and had him arrested,” Cole explained.
Matt Markel, CTO of Epirus, introduced an even more direct solution—high-powered microwaves designed to disable drones. Markel described his system straightforwardly: “It disrupts the electronics. The drone doesn’t know how to fly, so it can’t. And then it falls.” Remarkably effective, Markel claimed complete success in field operations: “We’ve had great success against every single drone system we’ve tested.” The Epirus technology represents a leap forward, eliminating expensive missile systems in favor of reusable, highly targeted, cost-effective countermeasures.
Mariam Sorond, CEO of NextNav, brought another crucial dimension to the discussion: vulnerabilities in GPS systems, essential for civilian infrastructure and military operations. Sorond revealed that GPS is deeply embedded in critical infrastructure, including water supply management, banking, and transportation. She warned of GPS’s susceptibility to jamming and spoofing, emphasizing a need for terrestrial alternatives. “Our enemies are getting smarter,” she cautioned. “They’re going after vulnerabilities we haven’t closed yet.”
Sorond emphasized that protecting GPS signals isn’t just about defense—it’s also an economic imperative. “If we lose GPS, it’s a $1.6 billion economic impact per day,” she stated starkly, highlighting how deeply intertwined security and economic stability have become.
The speakers agreed on the urgency of modernizing and accelerating U.S. defense procurement systems. Schmidt, critical of the Pentagon’s sluggish acquisition process, described a bureaucratic nightmare: “The typical new weapon cycle is about 16 years from start to finish,” he lamented. “Do you think we can accurately predict the weapons we’ll need in 16 years, given the innovation we’re seeing? Of course not.”
Cole echoed this, detailing his experience navigating the procurement process. “We developed on our own dollar, making it commercial off-the-shelf, which allowed rapid government acquisition,” Cole explained. “We went from prototype to program of record in under two years—a process that normally takes eight years or more.” This acceleration, though exceptional, demonstrates the possible speed if traditional procurement channels embrace innovation.
Looking ahead, Schmidt foresees a deeply unsettling yet potentially stabilizing outcome: warfare dominated by AI-driven drones. “No human can plan a battle to either attack or defend without AI,” he asserted. “You and I each have a million drones—no one is making decisions in real time. It’s AI-on-AI warfare.” He argues that the vast uncertainty of outcomes could ironically serve as a powerful deterrent, forcing nations to reconsider initiating conflicts.
Yet, such optimism is cautious. Schmidt warned that the Pentagon remains resistant to fundamentally rethinking defense structures. He provided a stark example: “We have 5,000 Abrams tanks in warehouses in Germany that we don’t need,” he stated bluntly. In contrast, Schmidt argued for embracing innovation: “America needs to dominate this future,” he urged. “There’s plenty of money for national security. It just needs to be spent innovatively.”
The Milken panel underscored a critical inflection point: The future of conflict is no longer about human pilots, tanks, or traditional battlefields. Instead, it involves invisible networks, silent drones, and rapid, AI-driven decisions beyond human comprehension. This shift demands new ways of thinking, funding, and operating—changes that the Pentagon and governments worldwide must urgently embrace.
Whether we like it or not, human participation in warfare is changing. As Schmidt explained, “We’re breaking the connection forever—the war will be prosecuted over the internet, and people will be drinking coffee while robotic systems do the fighting.”
Unfortunately, it is people who will still do the dying.